While neither residential nor commercial growth has been a force in Harvard for generations, the time may come when the Town is faced with development pressures that come forth unexpectedly. The same lack of infrastructure that prevents large-scale subdivisions or garden apartment complexes also stymies opportunity for well-considered commercial development that could offset the overwhelmingly residential tax burden here.
Way back in 2002, with zoning essentially the same as it is now, the Montachusett Regional Planning Commission (MRPC) funded a buildout analysis that indicated that 3,203 additional houses could be built in Harvard resulting in 9,306 additional residents, 2,114 additional school children, and nearly 70 miles of additional roads. The Census tallied 5,981 Harvard residents at that time, so this buildout analysis projected a population of 15,287 at full buildout. Granted, these types of analyses don't take into consideration the site by site challenges to build such as the presence of ledge, the inability of a specific lot to perc for a septic tank, or lot specific environmental constraints such as wetlands or floodplain. Yet they do embed high-level variables to take into account what are termed absolute and partial constraints that reduces the gross inventory of buildable land.
Taking the results of any buildout analysis and running the numbers on a fiscal impact analysis of growth provides a picture of how much a specific type of growth, for example, light industrial versus single-family homes with anywhere from 3 to 5 bedrooms, can either contribute to or place a burden on the tax base. Looking at an anticipated revenue stream from a new development must also take into consideration the miles of new road to be maintained, stormwater infrastructure, public right-of-way to be mowed, policing and emergency services to be provided, children to be schooled, and other impacts.
Tools such as buildout analyses and fiscal impact assessment can be used both to assess the impact of changing the zoning (e.g. what the fiscal impact of a new type of commercial zoning will likely have) and also to determine the impact of a specific development proposal. One of the new types of zoning that Harvard may be considering soon is termed Open Space Residential Development (OSRD) where a significant amount of open space is set aside and protected in perpetuity. While there are a number of objectives that are to be achieved with this new type of zoning, one important one for local fiscal impact is the significantly smaller infrastructure footprint. This results in lower cost of development for the developer and lower costs to maintain any roadways or other public infrastructure for the Town.
One of the most significant costs to sprawl development is the need to repair and maintain miles of roadway infrastructure that cities and towns accept from new subdivisions. While currently Harvard has an open space development tool called Open Space and Conservation Planned Residential Development or OSC-PRD, it isn't an attractive option for developers since there are no incentives available and it is a far more onerous process and cost compared to conventional subdivisions. The expectation is that the proposed new draft amending the current version will be more attractive.
In the end, Harvard must be aware of the true cost of growth and that continuing to embrace any type of suburban sprawl form of development will come at high municipal and social costs. See the article in Crain's Detroit Business entitled, Crain's Forum: As outer-ring suburbs grow, they bring demands for road growth — how can we afford it? which describes the increasing burden of paying for road maintenance and repair in high growth areas. Many municipalities in Michigan and elsewhere are actually de-paving roads and pulling up sewer infrastructure as they can no longer afford to serve these areas. It is worth planning for the future of municipal services as it relates to the plan for a community's future growth.
