Interview With Dennis Meadows, From Limits to Growth Fame

Here is an interesting take on resiliency from one of the pioneers of the limits to growth and sustainability. Enjoy the audio and transcript here. A small snippet below from the website Peak Prosperity.

Chris Martenson:     Well, thank you for that. Dennis, for our listeners, can you please summarize The Limits to Growth. What is it?

Dennis Meadows:      In the early ‘70s, a group called the Club of Rome, which is an international network of mainly corporate leaders, became concerned about the interconnection of emerging problems, and out of their conversations evolved finally a project at MIT, which I directed over a course of two years.

We gathered available data going back to the year 1900 to create a computer simulation model showing the interaction between population, economic capital, and environmental resources, and used it to project out to 2100 under a bunch of different assumptions, assumptions about social change, technical change, and so forth.

And the basic conclusion was that if the policies which were then in force and which had produced enormous growth in in welfare around the world by early ‘70s, if those were continued, we would see further growth through maybe 2020, and then the physical realities would start to impress themselves and there would be decline.

We knew it was impossible to make predictions precisely because so much of this depends on political responses, so we developed a set of thirteen different scenarios, some of which showed sustainable development, most of which showed what we would loosely term overshooting decline. And it’s the overshooting decline scenario which is our standard – was standard at that time – and actually has been borne out. We're clearly now just beginning the decline phase.

Chris Martenson:     So let’s talk about overshoot really quickly. I noticed in your book, in Limits to Growth and the update, you also talk about the three causes of overshoot. If we could just define overshoot for people so we're all on the same page, please.

Dennis Meadows:      Overshoot refers to a concept of carrying capacity. Carrying capacity is the rather loosely defined concept of how much a population can be supported on a given ecosystem. So in our case, it comes down to sort of how much population and material wellbeing can be sustained a planet earth given its stock of resources and its natural regenerative possibilities.

This is a concept which is not very well defined. It’s subject to a lot of debate. But I think there's pretty good consensus that the current population, and certainly the current material wellbeing, are far above what could be sustained.

So, as a consequence, it’s kind of like if you have a bank account, for a short period you can spend a lot more from the bank than you're putting into it as you draw down your reserves. But at some point, you deplete your reserves, and then your spending has to go into a decline. And in a very crude way that’s what we're looking at.

In our case, spending is things like energy use, food consumption, fresh water, and so forth.

Vilhelm Hammershoi Interior, Sunlight on the Floor

Notable Landscape Planner and Author Randall Arendt Coming to Harvard

On February 6th, Landscape Planner and Author Randall Arendt, notable for developing the concept of conservation subdivision design, will be speaking at a workshop at the Bromfield School. Conservation subdivision design, known also as Open Space Residential Design, is an alternative form of subdivision that results in a significant amount of permanent open space being protected. Noteworthy for having written Rural by Design and a number of other books on conservation such as Growing Greener and Conservation Design for Subdivisions, Mr. Arendt will be leading the workshop through discussion of the concept, a focus on Harvard's proposed Bylaw update, and a design exercise using a Harvard example.

Harvard currently has a version of conservation subdivisions called OSC-PRD or Open Space and Conservation Planned Residential Development. However, this version is not particularly sophisticated or attractive to use and thus it has only been utilized once in sixteen years.

The expectation is that with a lot of thought put into the new version by the Planning Board, staff, and other reviewers in the engineering, development, and planning community, that is can be a great deal more functional and attractive to use. Additionally, with Randall Arendt's participation in the workshop, explaining the benefits of conservation design, and his consulting on the Town's Bylaw, the hope is that Harvard will have a true model ordinance and attract the best form of developments possible under this framework.

The workshop, to be held from 4:00 pm to 9:00 pm (see agenda here), will also feature speakers from the development community, designers, planners, and others who will share their perspectives and experiences related to conservation or open space design.  Intended to attract local citizens, board members, engineers, architects, landscape designers, and others, you can sign up for the event on Eventbrite by clicking the link below. The workshop is sponsored by the Town of Harvard, the Massachusetts Audubon Society, and the Massachusetts Smart Growth Alliance.

Eventbrite Link

For further information on the event and the progress on the Bylaw update, please go to the Planning Board's project page here.  Finally, any questions on the concept, the event, or the bylaw, please feel free to contact Christopher J. Ryan, AICP, Director of Community and Economic Development with the Town of Harvard at cryan@harvard.ma.us or 978.456.4100 x.323.

A Large-Scale Agritourism Model

The Chair of the Planning Board mentioned in passing of a farm in Tennessee that has been transformed into an agritourism mecca that includes an inn, restaurant, and scores of activities such as cycling, archery carriage rides, fly fishing, farm field school, horseback riding, hiking, and a spa among others. It seems a good large-scale model of what this type of agritourism could be.

Click on this link to visit their website.

All-Electric Fueling Station in Maryland

An all-electric fueling station is in the works in Maryland. Sounds like a great idea for Massachusetts as well. Maybe some entrepreneurial spirit could devise a version of it in our area.

Article: https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/27/us/maryland-electric-vehicle-charging-trnd/index.html

And check out this update here...

Climate Change, Risk Management, and Our Future Prosperity

Yesterday's post about the MVP program and Harvard's participation makes a plea for volunteers to join the Town in executing the next phase of the project when Harvard can pursue action grant money for actual projects. The two MVP plans that were adopted and accepted by the state has led to our designation as an MVP Community last month. Some facets of the MVP plans that were developed relate to Harvard's local economy, particularly the agricultural sector. However, the documents do not consider macroeconomic and related sociopolitical risks.

This New York Times article, "Climate Change Will Cost Us Even More Than We Think," is an eye-opening reminder that our economic system has a fragility that isn't often considered since more or less we are constantly on a growth trajectory. Certainly there are perturbations that impact the markets, employment, interest rates, and the like, but in general, the system and its components must have growth or they/it fails. We haven't seen hints of this vulnerability for over a decade but from time to time they remind us of all of the things that must go right in order to keep the ship sailing in a direction that facilitates this growth.

I've written extensively about the philosophy of perpetual growth that the global economy rests upon so I won't repeat those thoughts here, but one of two interesting concepts that emerge from this article relate to risk management.  One point of emphasis that I sought from the consulting team that developed Harvard's plans was this lens of risk management that is applied to so many elements of our lives such as life insurance, automobile insurance (mandatory), health care, investments, and so on. If we are concerned enough about minute short-term risks such as premature death, then certainly a threat that could impact global and local economies, local safety and security, and emergency management scenarios is worth at least talking about from that perspective.

Consider the following related to climate change:

1. Large insurance companies like Zurich and many others are taking climate change very seriously and when such a conservative and cautious industry sector assumes leadership in this area, it's a pretty strong indicator not only of the validity of the issue but the seriousness  
2. Department of Defense,  Intelligence Officials, and Financial and other entities 
3. First Responders and their concerns

Harvard residents, businesses, and local officials should all be cognizant of the potential for climate change to impact things of importance. I could give examples of what these impacts might be, but the list might be incomplete, might overstate it, and surely will miss things that are wholly unanticipated at this point, precisely because of the cascading effects that the authors discuss in the article.

"...they will not occur in isolation, but will reinforce one another in damaging ways. In some cases, they may produce a sequence of serious, and perhaps irreversible, damage."

Some may throw up their hands in frustration suggesting that if there is so much uncertainty related to impacts and their interactions, why even try?  I'd perhaps liken it to when you're very sick and need to take a half-dozen or more medications. While pharmacology researchers seek to do the best they can to estimate interactions, there is no way to be certain, particularly the more in tandem are prescribed. So, when sick, do we just say no to the prescribed medications or do we usually steel ourselves to try?

But the bottom line for the issue of climate change and how it might impact us individually or collectively; locally or regionally, is that we need to at least pay attention. Get involved if you can, but at the very minimum, invest in learning about the issue and, if you are so inclined, hold discussions with friends, neighbors, family, and, most risky of all, co-workers.

Don't forget that we need volunteers to help us with MVP, so drop me an email - cryan@harvard.ma.us -  if you want to help us out!

Recent Happenings in the Harvard Planning World

It's late October and like much of 2019, there are a number of interesting projects going on in the community that relate to planning and economic development. Here we go with a few!

• Municipal Vulnerability Preparedness (MVP) - Harvard received its formal notice of designation as an MVP Community in September. This makes the Town eligible for action grants. A new grant cycle opened two weeks ago and the Town anticipates making a grant application for the highest priority in our MVP plan, a Climate Action Plan that will provide more detail and specific actions such as culverts and dams to address, an agricultural action plan, a forestry plan, and much more. If you are interested in participating in the implementation phase of MVP and work with us to identify specific projects and funding opportunities, please contact me, Chris Ryan, at cryan@harvard.ma.us or 978.456.4100 x.323 and thanks to all of those of you who participated the first time around.
  
• Special Town Meeting Zoning Articles - There are six sections proposed to be amended within four warrant articles and I'll summarize them below. Note that the Planning Board has published a Frequently Asked Questions document that hopefully answers most questions about the articles. It can be found here or request a newer version from cryan@harvard.ma.us.

1. Article 19: Amend the Protective Bylaw Section 125-39, Site Standards. This article ensures that fire protection ponds for development projects must be located within the town's boundaries and not in another town.
2. Article 20: Amend the Protective Bylaw Section 125-02. Definitions. This Section is amended by adding a series of definitions specifically related to other proposed bylaws below. Should those articles fail, the related definitions would be sought to be removed by floor amendment prior to voting.
3. Article 21: Amend the Protective Bylaw Section 125-52, Ayer Road Village Special Permit. This seeks the amendment of a section of the bylaw that has been in existence since 2004 intended to encourage higher quality development in the C Commercial zoning district. However, due to a few issues with the bylaw, this has largely not happened. The key amendment is to increase development density from 0.2 (20% of lot area) to 0.3 (30% of lot area).
4. Article 22: Amend the Protective Bylaw Sections 125-12, 13, and 14, Small-Scale, Medium-Scale, and Large-Scale Commercial Uses. This proposed amendment seeks to add a few uses and examples of other uses.

• Please feel free to download the FAQ for additional detail.
  
• Workshop for Open Space Residential Design - Harvard is in the process of revising its current Open Space and Conservation - Planned Residential Development (OSC-PRD) bylaw that also has shortcomings that make it unattractive to use by developers. We are trying to put together a January workshop with guest speakers to make the concept more clear and for citizens and board members to ask questions.
  
• Form-Based Code Resources - Recently I had the opportunity to facilitate a panel discussion at the Southern New England APA Conference in Springfield, MA on the concept of form-based codes, which is a more appropriate alternative zoning methodology in many cases. I have posted the different slide shows that were used in the panel. I will also be adding additional FBC resources to this page so please bookmark.

The Special Place that is Columbus, IN

Interesting article about a place that I have long spoken about and how they became what they are. A great script for other communities to follow.

https://www.citylab.com/design/2019/09/exhibit-columbus-modern-architecture-festival-j-irwin-miller/596866/

The Mesker Storefront

Mesker storefront in Petoskey, MI

Interesting piece from the National Park Service on two companies that made cast iron and sheetmetal storefronts for new commercial districts back in the 19th century. Of particular note are the numerous "Meskers" on Mackinac Island.

See link to NPS piece here

The True Cost of Growth

While neither residential nor commercial growth has been a force in Harvard for generations, the time may come when the Town is faced with development pressures that come forth unexpectedly. The same lack of infrastructure that prevents large-scale subdivisions or garden apartment complexes also stymies opportunity for well-considered commercial development that could offset the overwhelmingly residential tax burden here.

Way back in 2002, with zoning essentially the same as it is now, the Montachusett Regional Planning Commission (MRPC) funded a buildout analysis that indicated that 3,203 additional houses could be built in Harvard resulting in 9,306 additional residents, 2,114 additional school children, and nearly 70 miles of additional roads. The Census tallied 5,981 Harvard residents at that time, so this buildout analysis projected a population of 15,287 at full buildout. Granted, these types of analyses don't take into consideration the site by site challenges to build such as the presence of ledge, the inability of a specific lot to perc for a septic tank, or lot specific environmental constraints such as wetlands or floodplain. Yet they do embed high-level variables to take into account what are termed absolute and partial constraints that reduces the gross inventory of buildable land.

Taking the results of any buildout analysis and running the numbers on a fiscal impact analysis of growth provides a picture of how much a specific type of growth, for example, light industrial versus single-family homes with anywhere from 3 to 5 bedrooms, can either contribute to or place a burden on the tax base. Looking at an anticipated revenue stream from a new development must also take into consideration the miles of new road to be maintained, stormwater infrastructure, public right-of-way to be mowed, policing and emergency services to be provided, children to be schooled, and other impacts.

Tools such as buildout analyses and fiscal impact assessment can be used both to assess the impact of changing the zoning (e.g. what the fiscal impact of a new type of commercial zoning will likely have) and also to determine the impact of a specific development proposal. One of the new types of zoning that Harvard may be considering soon is termed Open Space Residential Development (OSRD) where a significant amount of open space is set aside and protected in perpetuity. While there are a number of objectives that are to be achieved with this new type of zoning, one important one for local fiscal impact is the significantly smaller infrastructure footprint. This results in lower cost of development for the developer and lower costs to maintain any roadways or other public infrastructure for the Town.

One of the most significant costs to sprawl development is the need to repair and maintain miles of roadway infrastructure that cities and towns accept from new subdivisions. While currently Harvard has an open space development tool called Open Space and Conservation Planned Residential Development or OSC-PRD, it isn't an attractive option for developers since there are no incentives available and it is a far more onerous process and cost compared to conventional subdivisions.  The expectation is that the proposed new draft amending the current version will be more attractive.

In the end, Harvard must be aware of the true cost of growth and that continuing to embrace any type of suburban sprawl form of development will come at high municipal and social costs. See the article in Crain's Detroit Business entitled, Crain's Forum: As outer-ring suburbs grow, they bring demands for road growth — how can we afford it? which describes the increasing burden of paying for road maintenance and repair in high growth areas. Many municipalities in Michigan and elsewhere are actually de-paving roads and pulling up sewer infrastructure as they can no longer afford to serve these areas. It is worth planning for the future of municipal services as it relates to the plan for a community's future growth.